Democrat Sherrod Brown leads appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted 48% to 44% among likely Ohio voters in a new Marist poll conducted October 15-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted September 29 to October 5 also found Brown ahead, 49% to 43%, while a Bowling Green State University poll with YouGov showed Brown up 48% to 42%.
The November 3 special election for the seat Vice President JD Vance vacated has become one of the most expensive contests of the 2026 midterm cycle, with advertising reservations tracked by AdImpact reaching $422.6 million. Brown's campaign raised $23.1 million in the third quarter compared with $4.8 million for Husted, though Husted has benefited from substantial outside spending. President Trump has returned to Ohio to rally for Husted as early voting is underway, and both campaigns have tied the war with Iran to rising costs for Ohio families.
Election forecasters remain split: an October 20 forecast model gave Husted a 53.8% probability of winning with a projected margin of just 0.7 points, while poll aggregators show Brown slightly ahead in the polling average. Brown is seeking a return to the chamber after losing his previous seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, while Husted has served in the Senate since January 2025 after being appointed to replace Vance.