Christmas decorations at Indooroopilly Shopping Centre, Brisbane, 2022.
The 2026 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in years, with forecasters projecting record US retail sales despite wobbly consumer confidence. Deloitte expects holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion for November 2026 through January 2027, up 4.0 to 4.8 percent from last year.
E-commerce is forecast to grow 7.5 to 8.4 percent to between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion, Deloitte said on September 10, citing disposable personal income growth of 4.5 to 5.2 percent as a strong predictor of spending. Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special, said Natalie Martini, Deloitte's US retail leader — while seeking value across income levels, switching brands and using promotions to manage spending.
The Mastercard Economics Institute is even more bullish on the core season: it expects US retail sales excluding autos and gas to rise 5.5 percent between November 1 and December 24 — the strongest holiday growth since 2022. Online sales should grow 11 percent, while in-store sales are forecast up 3.6 percent, the best showing for physical retail in four years. About half the spending growth will come from higher prices, the institute estimates, driven by elevated energy costs.
The calendar compresses the season: Thanksgiving falls late again, and Cyber Monday lands in November, concentrating online shopping into one long weekend. Forrester adds that e-commerce will drive nearly 60 percent of incremental holiday sales growth. The message for shoppers: expect promotions to start early — and for retailers, November is the month that matters. AlixPartners strikes a more cautious note: its September outlook forecasts 4 to 7 percent growth even as 57 percent of consumers say the economy is worse than a year ago. Shoppers, it finds, are trading down, buying earlier and leaning on credit and buy-now-pay-later to stretch budgets. The season will reward retailers who meet value-seeking behaviour with sharp promotions.
Photo: Kgbo, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons