African economies are set to grow faster than China for the first time in decades, the International Monetary Fund has declared, in a landmark shift for the global growth map. At its annual meetings in Bangkok, the IMF projected sub-Saharan Africa to expand by 4.5 percent in 2026 — a tenth of a point above China's forecast — making the continent the world's growth story this year, according to Business Tech Africa.
Several African economies including Ethiopia, Guinea, Rwanda and Côte d'Ivoire are projected to grow at or above 6 percent, while Ghana is forecast at 5.7 percent, the Ghana News Agency reports. The IMF's October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook, themed 'Resilient Growth, Clouded Outlook,' lifted the region's forecast 0.2 points from its April projection, citing earlier reforms and rapid adaptation by governments and businesses.
IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane pointed to subsidy and exchange-rate reforms in Ethiopia and Nigeria and structural reforms in South Africa, alongside the rerouting of global energy supplies, as the foundations of the continent's resilience. Remarkably, the IMF noted that African economies managed the Iran war's shock to fuel and fertiliser prices better than many had expected.
But the Fund warned that resilience is not immunity. Median inflation is projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent this year, driven by higher fuel and transport costs, while bilateral aid is set to fall a further 12 percent. Debt-service costs now absorb about 12 percent of government revenue in the typical African country, and the IMF cautioned that a tightening of global financial conditions or a severe El Niño could add fresh pressure to the outlook.