Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to a University of Houston survey released October 19. The poll, conducted statewide from October 10 to October 14, found Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46% among 2,000 likely voters, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and another 3% undecided. The survey's reported margin of error was plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.
A separate CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 8-16 also showed Talarico ahead, 51% to 49% among likely voters. The race to replace retiring Sen. John Cornyn has developed into one of the most competitive in the country, with Democrats eyeing their first statewide victory in Texas since 1994. Talarico is on a 21-city tour through Election Day, while Paxton has drawn major outside support, including $158 million from Elon Musk to the Senate Leadership Fund, which passed the amount to a Texas PAC backing Paxton, according to Kalshi.
The same University of Houston poll found other Texas statewide races tight: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 49% to 46% in the governor's race, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick led Democrat Vikki Goodwin 47% to 42%, and Republican Mayes Middleton led Democrat Nathan Johnson 47% to 42% for attorney general. The poll also found 59% of likely voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 55% say the same about Texas.