British universities have warned that falling international student numbers could undermine the government's planned £925 annual levy on international enrolments. According to The i Paper, as reported by The Profiler, the National Union of Students and the Russell Group have both warned that declining overseas recruitment could leave the government collecting less than it expects.
Under the proposal, universities in England would pay £925 a year for each international student from August 2028, with the proceeds reinvested in higher education and skills. According to The Profiler, the levy is intended to help restore maintenance grants for disadvantaged domestic students on courses linked to the government's industrial strategy, including engineering and healthcare, with eligible students from households earning up to £30,000 able to receive up to £1,000 in each of their first two years and £750 in later years.
Government projections put the yield at £445 million in 2028–2029, rising to £465 million in 2029–2030 and £480 million in 2030–2031, according to The Profiler. University leaders dispute those projections. Russell Group chief executive Libby Hackett told The i Paper that the latest data shows a concerning fall in study visa applications, while Universities UK chief executive Vivienne Stern called the policy "daft" and said the government's income projections were already unrealistic.
The levy has already been confirmed in its basic design. According to Times Higher Education, the Department for Education has confirmed that English universities will be charged even for students who drop out, provided they were on a course for two weeks or more, and has rejected calls for wider exemptions, saying sizeable concessions could jeopardise the revenue raised.
What happens next is a test of two competing claims: the government's view that the levy is a fair way to fund support for disadvantaged students, and the sector's view that taxing the students whose fees sustain many institutions will further depress recruitment from key markets including Nigeria, China and India. The Office for Students is to run trial calculations based on 2026–27 and 2027–28 student data before real billing begins, according to Times Higher Education.
Image credit: Denys Wilkinson Building, University of Oxford by Stannered, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).