Growing questions are being asked about how COVID-19 transmission is being communicated across the United States, as wastewater surveillance continues to detect substantial coronavirus activity even when federal assessments describe national infection levels as low or moderate.
According to a November 2 report, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) classified national COVID-19 wastewater activity as moderate during parts of October 2026, while independent wastewater surveillance reported higher activity — raising questions about whether Americans are receiving a sufficiently clear picture of ongoing transmission.
Wastewater monitoring has become an important tracking tool because it can identify coronavirus circulation without relying on individuals seeking medical attention or undergoing clinical testing, the report noted. Although available evidence does not confirm extremely high infections across most states, the differences between surveillance systems highlight a significant challenge in measuring the virus's continuing spread.
On October 30, the CDC acknowledged that a transition to a new wastewater testing contractor would temporarily affect approximately 200 monitoring sites, with sampling, testing and reporting needing to restart at affected locations, the report said. The CDC also cautions that wastewater results from sites covering less than five percent of a state's population may not accurately represent conditions throughout that state.
The CDC's outlook for the 2026–2027 respiratory illness season anticipates that COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus will continue placing demands on health services through the winter months.
What happens next: as the contractor transition completes and affected sites come back online, officials and independent trackers alike will be watching whether their readings converge — and whether public messaging keeps pace with what the sewers are showing.