United States online holiday spending is forecast to reach 275.1 billion dollars between November 1 and December 31, 2026, up 6.7 percent from last year, according to Adobe's holiday forecast published on September 28 and summarised by Arktis. The season is set to cross the 275 billion dollar milestone for the first time.
Cyber Monday, on November 30, is expected to remain the biggest online shopping day of the season, with consumers spending more than 15 billion dollars in a single day, 15.1 billion dollars, up 6.2 percent year over year, according to Adobe. Black Friday, on November 27, is forecast at 12.9 billion dollars, up 9.2 percent, and is growing faster than Cyber Monday, helped by the biggest discounts on televisions, apparel and appliances.
Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is expected to drive 47.5 billion dollars online, up 7.4 percent year over year, according to Adobe, representing 17.3 percent of the full season's spending.
Discounts, mobile and AI shape the season
Shoppers can expect competitive discounts throughout the season, up to 30 percent off listed prices during Cyber Week, according to Adobe. Discounts are expected to run at about 14 percent in early November, rising to 21 percent just before Thanksgiving and settling at 10 to 15 percent through December.
Buy Now Pay Later is forecast to drive 21.3 billion dollars in online spending over November and December, up 6.6 percent year over year, according to Adobe, including 807 million dollars on Black Friday alone. Mobile continues to dominate, with Adobe expecting 57.4 percent of full-season online spending to happen on phones.
Artificial intelligence is also changing how people shop. Adobe expects AI-driven traffic to retail sites to grow 130 percent year over year this season, and reports that 77 percent of surveyed consumers who use AI to shop feel more confident in their purchases, according to the forecast summary.
The National Retail Federation forecast on October 15 that total United States holiday retail sales in November and December will reach 1.013 trillion dollars, up 4.2 percent on 2025, according to the figures compiled by Arktis. For shoppers, the practical advice is familiar: the deepest discounts arrive late in November, but the season's deals are already under way.