Early voting is running far ahead of the last midterm cycle in the states expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of advance ballots cast two weeks before Election Day.
The AP's analysis found that early voting in Texas is up 74 percent compared with the same point in 2022, while Kansas has more than doubled its early turnout. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio have each recorded increases of more than 30 percent in combined early in-person and mail voting. Nationally, more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person ballots have been cast, compared with about 9 million at the same stage four years ago.
The numbers matter because Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of those states, and in most of them Republicans now account for a smaller share of advance voters than they did in 2022. The AP also reported that dissatisfaction with tariffs, the persistently high cost of living, and elevated gas and diesel prices have generated political blowback against Republicans in places the party did not expect to have to defend this year.
Election analysts caution that early turnout figures do not predict which party will win. The increase also partly reflects states that expanded early voting opportunities or released more of their data since the last midterms, and the partisan composition of early voters can shift as Election Day approaches.
Still, the surge points to unusually strong engagement for a midterm cycle. Historically, midterms favor the party out of power in Washington — a dynamic that now works in Democrats' favor, since Republicans control both chambers of Congress and the White House. With voters set to decide the balance of power on November 3, both parties are treating the next two weeks as a sprint to convert enthusiasm into actual ballots.